The problem with good news in the real world is that it's *messy*. Neat endings are for novels, not the real world, and that goes double for the climate emergency. But even though good climate news is complex and nuanced, that doesn't mean it shouldn't buoy our spirits and fill our hearts with hope.
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If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
https://pluralistic.net/2024/06/12/s-curve/#anything-that-cant-go-on-forever-eventually-stops
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If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
https://pluralistic.net/2024/06/12/s-curve/#anything-that-cant-go-on-forever-eventually-stops
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Cory Doctorow
•Ostrzeżenie o treści: Long thread/2
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/during-year-of-extremes-carbon-dioxide-levels-surge-faster-than-ever
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During a year of extremes, carbon dioxide levels surge faster than ever
www.noaa.govCory Doctorow
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And yet...
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Cory Doctorow
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https://billmckibben.substack.com/p/what-you-want-is-an-s-curve
Financiers and their critics should all be familiar with Stein's Law: "anything that can't go on forever will eventually stop." This is true outside of finance as well.
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What You Want is an S Curve
Bill McKibben (The Crucial Years)Cory Doctorow
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For years, they told themselves that they were experiencing double-digit annual growth because they were "creating value" and "innovating" but the majority of their growth was just a side-effect of the growth of the internet itself.
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Cory Doctorow
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But when you run out of people who don't have internet access, your growth is going to slow.
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Cory Doctorow
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That's why the number of laptops sold in America slowed down. It's why the number of cellphones sold in America slowed down. It's why the number of "smart home" gizmos slowed down.
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Cory Doctorow
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One way or another, the world's carbon emissions will eventually level off. Even if we drive ourselves to (or over) the brink of extinction and set up the conditions for wildfires that release all the carbon stored in all the Earth's plants, the amount of carbon we pump into the atmosphere *has* to level off.
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Cory Doctorow
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That's where McKibben's latest newsletter comes in. He cites a new report from the Rocky Mountain Institute, which shows a major reversal in our energy sources, a shift that will see our energy primarily provided by renewables, with minimal dependence on fossil fuels:
https://rmi.org/insight/the-cleantech-revolution/
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The Cleantech Revolution
RMICory Doctorow
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Cory Doctorow
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Cory Doctorow
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Cory Doctorow
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https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/the_incredible_inefficiency_of_fossils.pdf
Fossil fuels suck. It's not just that they wreck the planet, or that their extraction is both politically and environmentally disastrous.
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Cory Doctorow
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Compare that with cleantech. EVs convert electricity to movement with 80-90% efficiency. Heat pumps are *300%* efficient (the main fuel for your heat pump is the heat in the atmosphere, not the electricity it draws).
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Cory Doctorow
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https://insideevs.com/news/722265/rivian-r1s-r1t-wiring/
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Cory Doctorow
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https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/copper-wire-price-remains-stable-amidst-surplus-supply-and-expanding-mining-25416#:~:text=Global%20Copper%20wire%20Price%20Remains%20Stable%20Amidst%20Surplus%20Supply%20and%20Expanding%20Mining%20Activities
This is exactly what happened with previous iterations of tech.
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Cory Doctorow
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Cory Doctorow
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What's more, global instability *drives* cleantech uptake. The Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a surge in European renewables.
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Cory Doctorow
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https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/an-oil-price-fixing-conspiracy-caused
If not for renewables, the incredible energy shocks of the recent years would be *far* more severe.
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An Oil Price-Fixing Conspiracy Caused 27% of All Inflation Increases in 2021
Matt Stoller (BIG by Matt Stoller)Cory Doctorow
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Cory Doctorow
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Cory Doctorow
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https://twitter.com/curious_founder/status/1798049929082097842?s=51
McKibben says the difference between where we are now and bringing back the push for home solar generation is the difference between "fast" and "faster" - that is the difference between tripling renewables by 2030 (survivable) and doubling (eek).
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Cory Doctorow
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Cory Doctorow
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The climate emergency was never going to be neatly solved. We weren't going to get a neat novelistic climax that saw our problems sorted out in a single fell swoop.
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Cory Doctorow
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But we should take our wins. Even if we're far from where we need to be on renewables, we're much farther along on renewables than we had any business hoping for, just a few years ago. The momentum is on our side. It's up to us to use that momentum and grow it.
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Cory Doctorow
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Cory Doctorow
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https://locusmag.com/2024-locus-awards-weekend/
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2024 Locus Awards Weekend, June 19-22
Locus OnlineM. Grégoire
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#ClimateChange #CanPol #cdnpoli
Cory Doctorowudostępnił to.
Joborg
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Sorry for nitpicking.
Cory Doctorow
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Dinand Mentink
•Tony Seba, in a very readable report, writes how this explosive growth alone can cause a positive technological disruption with a lot of social potential.
I highly recommend checking out his work: https://tonyseba.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/RethinkingEnergy2020-2030-LRR.pdf
Cory Doctorowudostępnił to.
Jiří Fiala Total Landscaping
•M. Fioretti
•https://mfioretti.substack.com/p/where-is-the-stuff-to-make-enough
that is, even with all those good news, there is not enough RAW MATERIALS to do all that AND keep lifestyles as usual. The sooner we all accept that and ask for it, the sooner the positive evolution you mention will happen.
AND, in doing so, we'll also get rid of a huge pile of debt, insecurity and mental health issues of all sorts, of course
Where is the stuff to make ENOUGH "real innovation"?
Marco Fioretti (Just an invitation...)